Grammy Predictions 2026

This piece was assisted by the wonderful editing of Pritika Sharma and Zora Edelstein.

The 2026 Grammys, streaming live on Paramount+ and CBS this evening, remain music’s biggest night of the year. While this year has some contentious nominations, there are still some incredible frontrunners that seem poised to take the wins of the evening. These are the artists the I predict will walk away with the night’s four biggest awards. 

Record of the Year: Sabrina Carpenter’s “Manchild”

Record of the Year typically leans towards chart successes, awarding songs like Miley Cyrus’ “Flowers” and Kendrick Lamar’s “Not Like Us,” which both spent multiple weeks atop the Billboard Hot 100. Last year, Sabrina Carpenter’s “Espresso” lost to Lamar’s aforementioned smash hit, but here, the Academy has the opportunity to give Carpenter a second chance. 

Carpenter (and songwriting partner Amy Allen, who’s up for Songwriter of the Year for the third year in a row) is a master of the earworm, and each of her singles are filled to the brim with hooks that help them stay at the top of the charts. “Manchild” is a catchy and beloved track that seems like an easy bet for this year’s award. It’s exactly the kind of song that deserves a Record of the Year win: overplayed and yet somehow gets better with every listen. 

Album of the Year: Bad Bunny’s DeBÍ TiRAR MáS FOToS

Album of the Year has always been about more than sound. It’s a prize that tends to award cultural success as much as good music, in recent years going to year-encompassing albums like Taylor Swift’s Folklore and Midnights, Billie Eilish’s When We All Fall Asleep Where Do We Go, and Beyoncé’s Cowboy Carter. 

The 2026 class of nominees has some major heavy hitters, especially in hip hop, where we’re still riding the wake of 2024’s “Not Like Us.” However, recency bias (the tendency of Academy voters to forget about albums released earlier in the nomination period) will likely have major fallout this year, as Kendrick Lamar’s GNX, Leon Thomas’ Mutt, and Tyler, The Creator’s Chromakopia were all released back in 2024. But that only opens the door slightly wider for the little golden gramophone to make it to the hands of 2025’s king: Bad Bunny. 

If the Grammys were ever going to award Album of the Year to a non-English-language record (something they’ve never done), now would be the time. He already won the same award at the earlier Latin Grammys, giving him a bigger shot than ever at the main event. Bad Bunny remains the only Latin artist ever nominated in the category at the main Grammy Awards, and DeBÍ TiRAR MáS FOToS felt less like a compositional project than it did a love letter to Puerto Rico — notably a still U.S. controlled territory despite a growing movement for its independence, one that Bad Bunny has championed in this record. Amidst the current political turmoil of the United States as deportations and racism surge, this could be the best opportunity for the Grammys to make a statement that they stand with the people affected by President Trump’s violent takeover. If they hold true to their recent focus on social justice, they will. Even aside from the political implications, critics agree it’s musically the best album of the group. 

Song of the Year: KPop Demon Hunters’ “Golden”

Unlike some of the other categories, Song of the Year tends to stay true to its mission. It leans towards critically acclaimed writing over chart toppers, awarding artists like Silk Sonic, H.E.R., Billie Eilish, and Bonnie Raitt in the last few years. 

On paper, KPop Demon Hunters might seem like an unlikely contender, but “Golden” has quietly become unignorable. Not only has the hit amassed huge success among younger audiences — it’s also been a hit with the critics. “Golden” has already taken home one major award at the Golden Globes, and it’s looking like the Grammys (and probably the Oscars) are going to follow suit. 

Best New Artist: Olivia Dean 

Best New Artist is supposedly one of the Grammys’ most tuned-in categories, aiming to be robust with burgeoning stars. Disappointingly, yet again, in 2026 it’s full of nominees a year or two past their breakout, or young internet successes who aren’t likely to resonate as well with the Grammy voting body. 

But there’s one name on here who checks off both boxes: Olivia Dean. The young neo-soul star has been rising steadily over the past 7 years, but reached a much wider audience (and a No. 2 spot on the Billboard Hot 100) with her last record, The Art of Loving, which managed the rare feat of being both viral and creatively respected. She’s inescapable on the retail radio and on your TikTok feed, but hasn’t managed to be nearly as blasé or cringe as some of her fellow nominees, making her a solid choice for a category that prides itself on forecasting longevity. 

This is another strange year for the awards, where the ever-increasing presence of internet stars continues to threaten the legacy artists who used to have the Grammys in the palm of their hands. Last year saw younger artists make a splash, but still lose to Kendrick Lamar and Beyoncé in the biggest categories. But this year feels like it could prove differently and hand awards to both newcomers and long-unrecognized veterans. Tune in to the Grammy Awards Feb. 1 on CBS or Paramount+ to find out if I'm right!